@RichardFergie I can't believe it's not possible to build a structure mathematically to help discover patterns - maybe not ML but needed.— Craig Sullivan (@OptimiseOrDie) October 11, 2013
Today I had a very interesting Twitter conversation with Craig Sullivan on the subject of automatically recognising pertinent features when looking at data.
Craig is hoping for some kind of system where everything is dumped in and the machine can figure out which bits are important. This kind of thing can be done already with many supervised and unsupervised learning algorithms but these generally suffer from the curse of dimensionality as the number of features increase.
So that is one reason why Craig's algorithmic dream is hard; machine learning off data with large number of features requires far more data (and therefore time/money) than machine learning on a smaller feature set.
Sometimes the size of the feature set can be reduced by ignoring parts of the data; for example stripping the minutes or seconds information out of a timestamp or by removing the last digits of an IP address. This data can be important - it depends on the context - so in some circumstances it should be left in. The important thing to realise is that it is human input that is reducing the dimensions here, not the algorithm.
The other way to reduce the dimensions is to pre-process some data. This could mean computing time on page by taking the difference between two timestamps or by tagging a user as "young" based on a combination of their cookies or referral data. This data processing could be combined with the learning algorithm as part of a larger scheme but the decision of what processing should be done again comes from human input.
There have been some developments in systems that try to figure out how to process data in order to improve machine learning performance but I think these are not yet practical in general; if you think you suffer from the curse of dimensionality to start with imagine how much worse it gets when you add dimensions for all possible functions on combinations of features.
I hope I have convinced you that this approach is not practical in full generality.
I have two more specific examples with things that I've been working on recently that illustrate some of the above points.
Everyone in the SEO world loves correlation studies and they also love saying "correlation is not causation". So something is a bit odd about that.
Correlation is not causation, but correlations can tell you a bit about causation and the causal structure of what is being measured. I keep meaning to blog more explanations of how this works because I think this is extremely important (or maybe just extremely interesting; I have difficulty separating the two).
Anyway, Moz recently released a lot of correlation data as part of their ranking factors study. I decided to run some causal discovery algorithms over this to see what came out:
In this graph each node represents a feature in the Moz data. Arrows between nodes show causation with the node at the head of the arrow being caused by the node at the tail. For arrows with two heads the algorithm was unable to determine the direction of the causation.
The graph has been pruned to only include nodes that are connected to another node (but I did this after running the algorithm; it only changes how the data is displayed).
A few things to note from the graph:
Just chucking a load of data into the algorithm has not got me the insights I wanted. Perhaps a better algorithm or more data would help. But the algorithm used is fairly cutting edge (especially when it comes to open source implementations). 727,419 data points might not be enough to be perfect, but it should be enough to do better than this.
I've got a few ideas for improvement:
Are these points just evidence of a poor algorithm? I'd only go as far as to say that the last point might point to this. I know it is possible to test for different types of distribution and choose an independence test based on the results.
To algorithmically figure out the first two points would either need some kind of AI to learn about SEO so that the additional context could be provided (currently it is not provided ahahaha) or we need an improved causal structure detecting algorithm in the first place.
Hopefully in a few weeks I will be able to point to some results that show human feature selection and processing combined with algorithmic insight can give useful results in this area.
Now onto my second example:
I do some work every week for a charity called Keyfund to help them improve their impact using data. This doesn't really involve any web data so this part might end up full of charity sector jargon; I'll try and explain as I go and not get too caught up in the ins and outs of exactly what Keyfund do.
Keyfund asks the young people they work with to self evaluate themselves (scores out of ten) on twelve skills before and after the intervention. This is one of the ways we measure the impact of an intervention.
Currently the skills are divided into three groups called "self", "task" and "relationship".
We would like to help facilitators (the people who work directly with the young people) improve their interventions by making them aware of areas where their young people make the most progress and where they make the least. The hypothesis is that some facilitators are good at fostering relationship skills (for example) but not others.
There is just one problem with this; the self assessment data from the young people does not support the division of skills into these groups. By which I mean a young person rating themselves highly on "searching for information" (a task skill) tells you very little about how they rate themselves for "solving problems" (another task skill). Correlations between skills are not higher for skills in the same group so saying that a facilitator is good as relationship skills is meaningless.
I took it upon myself to find new skill groupings that are backed up by the data.
This chart is the end result
The chart is a projection of the many dimensional data set onto the two principle components. The two principle components are dimensions chosen to highlight/maximise the "spread" of data - it is as if they were made for plotting charts with.
When you look at it like this the new clusters clearly make more sense than the old:
But they make sense mainly in the context of two dimensions where I can't easily explain what the dimensions are (they will be something like 0.5*solveproblems - 6*negotiate + 3.2*copestresstension +…).
This means it is hard to describe in exactly what sense the new groupings are better. I'm also at a loss when it comes to figuring out the mechanism that causes the skills to be grouped in this way.
This also makes it difficult to name the skill groupings which is pretty important when it comes to explaining the results and getting it accepted in the rest of the organisation.
There are two problems here:
Some of these are problems that can occur with any type of machine learning but others are specifically to do with the "chuck it all in and let the algorithm figure it out" approach.
In both of these examples the problem is that I've used a very general approach. I hope that in both cases I can get more useful results by considering more carefully the unique structure and context of the problem being solved before selecting and applying an algorithm.