# Notes

Posts that are too self-centred, narcissitic, or short for the main archive.

July 17, 2020

I’ve been reading the Wikipedia page for Dunning-Kruger effect. There are some surprising things in it that I’ve detailed in this tweet thread. I think most people are mitaken about what Dunning and Kruger’s work actually tells us. But that isn’t what I’m writing about here. Wikipedia also has a section that suggests, maybe, the experimental findings are mathematically inevitable given how the experiment was setup. The intuition here is that if you are in, for example, the 96th percentile and you are asked to estimate your rank then you can only overestimate by 4 percent but you can underestimate by a lot more than that. The same idea is also true for those in the 4th percentile except there they have a lot more space to overestimate rather than underestimate. I’m going to make a simulation to investigate this. scores <- data.frame(actual=rnorm(1000)) ## Then simulate them estimating their competence ## The estimates are centred on their true competence with a bit of variation ## either way ## NB: There is no link between the precision of the estimate and competence scores\$estimate

January 8, 2020

I’ve already written here about how I find September as much of a time for a fresh start as January. But this time around I’m feeling optimistic and I have several things I to look forward to over the rest of 2020. Does this mean my previous post was wrong? In terms of outcomes it must but I can offer the following mitigating circumstances: I was unusually quiet over the festive period. In fact I had two full weeks without having to do any client work at all which is the longest holiday I’ve had for some time. The weather today is lovely (albeit quite breezy) and I’ve been outside in the sun I’ve had two (!!) new business enquiries this week which is a lot for me and it makes me feel optimistic. Converting them into actual successful business opportunities is another story though… Because of all this I’ve been putting some time into thinking what I want to achieve in 2020. Sport My original rowing goal (set in September) for the season was to be in the top final for the single scull at one of the big multilane regattas. Because British Rowing have decided not to run

September 19, 2019